USD Index: A move to 102.00 remains a tangible risk – ING

OPEC+ output cut gives Dollar a lifeline. However, economists at ING still see the US Dollar Index at risk of falling toward 102.00.

This week, focus will be on US data

“The OPEC+ move may have given the Dollar a temporary lifeline, but we still think that markets will want to hear more reassurance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the Fed will indeed go ahead with more tightening in spite of recent financial turmoil to allow the Dollar some more stabilisation.”

“In the coming week, the focus will be on data in the US, with ISM manufacturing today, ISM services (more important) on Wednesday and jobs figures on Friday as well as some Fedspeak.”

 “Any signs of weakness in the data will likely push dovish bets back higher after the recent big unwinding of rate-cut bets.) Solid data and hawkish Fed comments may help reinforce May Fed hike expectations and help build a floor below DXY around 103.00/103.50.” 

“Looking ahead, lacking a hawkish tilt in the Fed message, a move to 102.00 remains a tangible risk.”