Zloty to suffer if the NBP gives the market a dovish signal – Commerzbank

The Polish central bank (NBP) meets today. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how the NBP can impact the Zloty (PLN).

Zloty to appreciate if the NBP remains restrained to cut rates 

“It is likely that the key rate will remain unchanged at 6.75% today. What will be decisive for the Zloty is whether the dovish majority will decide to declare the end of the rate hike cycle at this stage.”

“If the NBP remains restrained today as far as the end of the rate cycle and first rate cuts are concerned that would be a positive sign for the Zloty. It would require slightly restrictive trends in the NBP statement to allow the Zloty to appreciate against HUF and CZK though.”

“If the NBP seems relaxed as regards inflation developments though, thus giving the market a dovish signal, the Zloty is going to suffer, above all against HUF and CZK.”