USD/CAD: Economic data and their impact should be the primary driver in the near term – Scotiabank

USD/CAD headed for its fifth weekly close above 1.32, but well below 1.33. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Focus on spreads

While spot trends are static, the strengthening spread correlation does suggest that the economic data and their impact on the outlook for monetary policy in the US and Canada should be the primary driver for spot (rather than risk appetite or commodities) in the near term.

Month-end may see some net USD selling (versus the CAD and other major currencies) from passive hedge rebalancing Monday, although these sorts of flows have tended to slide into the market in the days leading up to month-end in recent years (rather than right around the turn of the month).