9 Jul 2013
Flash: USD/JPY close above 101.50 to negate fresh legs down - JP Morgan
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The start window for another recovery leg of the JPY is currently wide open, says Niall O'Connor, Currency Strategist at JP Morgan Securities.
O'Connor notes, "Having produced an almost textbook 5-wave decline against long-term up-trend from the 103.74 top to 93.79 in USD/JPY the market already indicated that latest recovery runs a great risk of stalling at or below the key-Tjunction at 101.39."
Until the latter is not broken decisively on hourly close, O'Connor sees "high probability that the C-wave down of a broader A-B-C down-consolidation to the key-T-junction at 93.575/92.572 (int. 38.2 %/pivot) is right ahead of us." A close and hold above 101.50, would negate this scenario and "would put the odds in favor of an extension of the long-term uptrend" O'Connor said.
O'Connor notes, "Having produced an almost textbook 5-wave decline against long-term up-trend from the 103.74 top to 93.79 in USD/JPY the market already indicated that latest recovery runs a great risk of stalling at or below the key-Tjunction at 101.39."
Until the latter is not broken decisively on hourly close, O'Connor sees "high probability that the C-wave down of a broader A-B-C down-consolidation to the key-T-junction at 93.575/92.572 (int. 38.2 %/pivot) is right ahead of us." A close and hold above 101.50, would negate this scenario and "would put the odds in favor of an extension of the long-term uptrend" O'Connor said.