18 Feb 2015
Japanese investors still eyeing the Antipodeans – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Nomura, shares the fund flow data by Japanese retail investors into AUD and NZD.
Key Quotes
“Retail investors were also net long JPY103.7bn of NZD in December, an increase from JPY87.6bn in November.”
“AUD has weakened since expectations of an RBA rate cut rose in response to disappointing GDP (announced 3 December)”
“Looking at the ratio of net long positions (daily data) held by retail investors according to Gaitame.com, in response to depreciation of AUD versus JPY, retail investors have taken a contrarian stance, adding to long AUD/JPY positions.”
“NZD followed AUD, depreciating against JPY from early December and as with AUD, retail investors bought NZD. From mid-December, as investors became more risk tolerant, NZD/JPY appreciated to around 94 and we believe retail investors then began taking profit by selling long positions.”
“However, the ratio of net long positions for both AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY has been rising since January.”
“Since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) changed its monetary policy on 15 January, 2015 expectations that the RBA would cut interest rates rose quickly and AUD has depreciated considerably, with AUD/JPY reaching 89 for the first time since October 2014.”
“NZD again followed AUD, depreciating against JPY – with retail investors aggressively increasing long positions in both currencies.”
“However, after the RBA’s surprise rate cut on 3 February, the ratio of net long positions for both currencies has declined slightly. We believe this is because retail investor AUD and NZD long positions may have been stopped out after the surprising RBA rate cut.”
Key Quotes
“Retail investors were also net long JPY103.7bn of NZD in December, an increase from JPY87.6bn in November.”
“AUD has weakened since expectations of an RBA rate cut rose in response to disappointing GDP (announced 3 December)”
“Looking at the ratio of net long positions (daily data) held by retail investors according to Gaitame.com, in response to depreciation of AUD versus JPY, retail investors have taken a contrarian stance, adding to long AUD/JPY positions.”
“NZD followed AUD, depreciating against JPY from early December and as with AUD, retail investors bought NZD. From mid-December, as investors became more risk tolerant, NZD/JPY appreciated to around 94 and we believe retail investors then began taking profit by selling long positions.”
“However, the ratio of net long positions for both AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY has been rising since January.”
“Since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) changed its monetary policy on 15 January, 2015 expectations that the RBA would cut interest rates rose quickly and AUD has depreciated considerably, with AUD/JPY reaching 89 for the first time since October 2014.”
“NZD again followed AUD, depreciating against JPY – with retail investors aggressively increasing long positions in both currencies.”
“However, after the RBA’s surprise rate cut on 3 February, the ratio of net long positions for both currencies has declined slightly. We believe this is because retail investor AUD and NZD long positions may have been stopped out after the surprising RBA rate cut.”