20 Mar 2015
RUB outlook remains negative – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Vladimir Miklashevsky, Economist at Danske Bank remains bearish on the outlook for the Russian currency.
Key Quotes
“Economic growth in Russia slowed down to 0.8% y/y in 2014 from 1.3% a year earlier according to the new preliminary data”.
“On 13 March the central bank (the CBR) cut the key rate by 100bp to 14%. The main reason given by the CBR for the cut was that ‘the balance of risks is still shifted towards a more significant cooling of the economy’.
“We remain bearish on the outlook for the RUB but we expect higher levels than in previous forecasts due to the rebound in the average oil price”.
“It is about the oil price and geopolitics at the moment, and no effect has been seen from changes in the key rate”.
“Volatility is dropping due to support of the rouble market by state corporations and softer news flow around the situation in Eastern Ukraine”.
Key Quotes
“Economic growth in Russia slowed down to 0.8% y/y in 2014 from 1.3% a year earlier according to the new preliminary data”.
“On 13 March the central bank (the CBR) cut the key rate by 100bp to 14%. The main reason given by the CBR for the cut was that ‘the balance of risks is still shifted towards a more significant cooling of the economy’.
“We remain bearish on the outlook for the RUB but we expect higher levels than in previous forecasts due to the rebound in the average oil price”.
“It is about the oil price and geopolitics at the moment, and no effect has been seen from changes in the key rate”.
“Volatility is dropping due to support of the rouble market by state corporations and softer news flow around the situation in Eastern Ukraine”.