7 Apr 2015
BoE rate hike could come in mid-2016 – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at Rabobank believe the BoE could start its hiking cycle at some point in H2 2015.
Key Quotes
“In the February Inflation Report the BoE conveyed the message that disinflation would be temporary and that the impact on real wages from the drop in food and energy prices will be good for growth”.
“More recently the Bank taken a more dovish tone by suggesting that the stronger tone of the pound sterling implies that inflation could stay low for longer”.
“Consequently the UK money market has pushed back expectations of the first BoE rate hike and it now only partially priced for a rate hike in June 2016”.
“By dropping to zero in February UK CPI inflation and immediately sparked a discussion as to whether the BoE could cut rates again”.
“Even though CPI inflation could drop below zero at some point over the coming months, such a move should be temporary”.
“The BoE has stated that long-term Inflation expectations have remained stable and given that there is little sign that the UK consumer is adopting a deflationary mindset we expect that the next policy move from the BoE will be a hike”.
“Although we have been calling for a move in February 2016, the risk that UK CPI stays low for longer implies that steady rates could be in place until later next year”.
Key Quotes
“In the February Inflation Report the BoE conveyed the message that disinflation would be temporary and that the impact on real wages from the drop in food and energy prices will be good for growth”.
“More recently the Bank taken a more dovish tone by suggesting that the stronger tone of the pound sterling implies that inflation could stay low for longer”.
“Consequently the UK money market has pushed back expectations of the first BoE rate hike and it now only partially priced for a rate hike in June 2016”.
“By dropping to zero in February UK CPI inflation and immediately sparked a discussion as to whether the BoE could cut rates again”.
“Even though CPI inflation could drop below zero at some point over the coming months, such a move should be temporary”.
“The BoE has stated that long-term Inflation expectations have remained stable and given that there is little sign that the UK consumer is adopting a deflationary mindset we expect that the next policy move from the BoE will be a hike”.
“Although we have been calling for a move in February 2016, the risk that UK CPI stays low for longer implies that steady rates could be in place until later next year”.