1 May 2015
EUR/USD 12month target at 1.04 – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Rabobank, note that EUR/USD might have further room to run higher on a break above 1.1265/80 but the long-term bearish view stays intact, targeting 1.04 levels over a 12month view.
Key Quotes
“EUR/USD ended the last day of trading in April extending its impressive (and painful for the EUR bears) gains to 1.1266 high. For the first time since the downside trend started in July 2014 EUR/USD posted monthly gains after opening at 1.0731 and trading as low as 1.0521 in April.”
“.. the scale of EUR rally took us by surprise. So how far could this rebound extend? 1.1265/80 is the key level to watch at this stage (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the December high and daily lows throughout February).”
“While a break higher would be another constructive short-term signal, one would have to be very brave to chase EUR/USD much higher ahead of crucial US non-farm payrolls scheduled next Friday. Based on Bloomberg survey, the market expects a fairly decent 230k increase in payrolls after March’s disastrous 129k.”
“As for the long-term outlook, we maintain our view that EUR/USD will be trading at 1.04 in 12m as the key fundamental driving factors remain intact.”
Key Quotes
“EUR/USD ended the last day of trading in April extending its impressive (and painful for the EUR bears) gains to 1.1266 high. For the first time since the downside trend started in July 2014 EUR/USD posted monthly gains after opening at 1.0731 and trading as low as 1.0521 in April.”
“.. the scale of EUR rally took us by surprise. So how far could this rebound extend? 1.1265/80 is the key level to watch at this stage (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the December high and daily lows throughout February).”
“While a break higher would be another constructive short-term signal, one would have to be very brave to chase EUR/USD much higher ahead of crucial US non-farm payrolls scheduled next Friday. Based on Bloomberg survey, the market expects a fairly decent 230k increase in payrolls after March’s disastrous 129k.”
“As for the long-term outlook, we maintain our view that EUR/USD will be trading at 1.04 in 12m as the key fundamental driving factors remain intact.”