9 Aug 2013
Flash: USD/JPY pullbacks seen as long-term buys – ANZ
FXstreet.com (New York) - Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ analyzes the short-term outlook of the USD/JPY.
Key quotes
“After the USD/JPY sound test of the 101.00-50 area, current overlapping pullbacks are seen as corrective, despite the relatively impulsive style of the down-moves.”
“The 96.75-97.25 area should be seen as a buying opportunity, with stops below 95.50, on the basis that a secondary rebound should develop to retest 101.50 if not a measured move towards 105.00. However, this could still be part of a broad consolidation of the strong gains seen since Q2’12 rather than a resumption of the rally.”
“The bias after such a strong rally (as in the rally from 77-103) is for a swift return to that uptrend. However, the more likely scenario is that a broader consolidation pattern develops before the uptrend can resume. In that context, the current price action is likely to be forming a consolidation pattern in which the near term bias is for a redefining of the recent (103.75) high. Longer-term, pullbacks should still be seen as a buying opportunity.”
Key quotes
“After the USD/JPY sound test of the 101.00-50 area, current overlapping pullbacks are seen as corrective, despite the relatively impulsive style of the down-moves.”
“The 96.75-97.25 area should be seen as a buying opportunity, with stops below 95.50, on the basis that a secondary rebound should develop to retest 101.50 if not a measured move towards 105.00. However, this could still be part of a broad consolidation of the strong gains seen since Q2’12 rather than a resumption of the rally.”
“The bias after such a strong rally (as in the rally from 77-103) is for a swift return to that uptrend. However, the more likely scenario is that a broader consolidation pattern develops before the uptrend can resume. In that context, the current price action is likely to be forming a consolidation pattern in which the near term bias is for a redefining of the recent (103.75) high. Longer-term, pullbacks should still be seen as a buying opportunity.”