23 Jul 2015
What to expect from UK retail sales? - Lloyds Bank
FXStreet (Bali) - Nikesh Sawjani, UK Macroeconomist at Lloyds Bank, notes that today’s release of June UK retail sales will provide a timely update on the health of the UK consumer sector, expecting a another firm rise in retail activity.
Key Quotes
"The combined 1.1% rise in headline retail sales volumes across both April and May highlighted the buoyancy of consumers in the UK."
"Volume growth has been supported by a boost to discretionary spending power in recent months, reflecting a combination of the decline in inflation, the pickup in earnings growth and buoyant consumer sentiment."
"Available indicators for retail activity in June are mixed with the weakness in the CBI report not reflected in other surveys. Notably BRC sales point to a firming in the annual growth rate."
"In what are highly volatile data at the best of times - and with a tenuous mapping into national accounts measures of household consumption - we look for another firm rise in retail activity. We forecast a 0.6% rise in the ex-auto fuel series and a 0.7% rise in headline sales volumes."
Key Quotes
"The combined 1.1% rise in headline retail sales volumes across both April and May highlighted the buoyancy of consumers in the UK."
"Volume growth has been supported by a boost to discretionary spending power in recent months, reflecting a combination of the decline in inflation, the pickup in earnings growth and buoyant consumer sentiment."
"Available indicators for retail activity in June are mixed with the weakness in the CBI report not reflected in other surveys. Notably BRC sales point to a firming in the annual growth rate."
"In what are highly volatile data at the best of times - and with a tenuous mapping into national accounts measures of household consumption - we look for another firm rise in retail activity. We forecast a 0.6% rise in the ex-auto fuel series and a 0.7% rise in headline sales volumes."