10 Oct 2013
Flash: Australian jobs a reminder why RBA cut cycle not over - Westpac
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Australia’s Sep labour force data at 00.30GMT is likely to provide a reminder of why the next move in the RBA cash rate is probably still a cut, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"The median forecast on total employment is 15K, with Westpac on 20K. This would be a very lukewarm rise after -11K in both Jul and Aug, the first consecutive monthly declines since Apr-May 2011."
"Even the upside surprise some predict, say 25-30K, would still leave a very sluggish profile for employment in recent months."
"It is probably best to watch the unemployment rate. The 5.8% jobless rate in Aug was aided by a fall in the participation rate to 65.0%, its lowest reading since Jan 2007. We look for 5.9%, which would equal the post-GFC high set in June 2009."
Key Quotes
"The median forecast on total employment is 15K, with Westpac on 20K. This would be a very lukewarm rise after -11K in both Jul and Aug, the first consecutive monthly declines since Apr-May 2011."
"Even the upside surprise some predict, say 25-30K, would still leave a very sluggish profile for employment in recent months."
"It is probably best to watch the unemployment rate. The 5.8% jobless rate in Aug was aided by a fall in the participation rate to 65.0%, its lowest reading since Jan 2007. We look for 5.9%, which would equal the post-GFC high set in June 2009."