14 Jan 2016
AUD: Full-time employment surges; services leading the way - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Annette Beacher, Chief Asia-Pac Macro Strategist at TD Securities, notes that the Australian employment was flat in December (-1k) after blockbuster Oct/Nov prints (upgraded to +130k combined) and with a correction in the participation rate from 65.3 to 65.1.
Key Quotes
“The unemployment rate at 5.8% was unchanged from the prior month. The markets shrugged off this report as it wasn’t strong enough to counter today’s overall soggy tone. AUD spiked but resettled to $US0.693.
The highlight in our view is three consecutive decent increases in full-time employment, usually associated with a stronger economy. Of the near-200k jobs added in the second half of 2015, around 120k were full-time. This is good news as part-time employment has been doing the heavy lifting for years now.
Jobs growth in H2 2015 was concentrated in Health Care and Retail, with the services sector the overwhelming employer. Mining employment is steady (job losses were in 2014) but expect further downside this year as projects are completed, but for some perspective, job losses in that sector are in the thousands, compared with the millions of services jobs out there. This rotation is a contributing factor as to why wages growth is so low, as traditionally the good-producing industries such as mining, manufacturing and to a lesser extent construction, are the high paying high growth jobs.”
Key Quotes
“The unemployment rate at 5.8% was unchanged from the prior month. The markets shrugged off this report as it wasn’t strong enough to counter today’s overall soggy tone. AUD spiked but resettled to $US0.693.
The highlight in our view is three consecutive decent increases in full-time employment, usually associated with a stronger economy. Of the near-200k jobs added in the second half of 2015, around 120k were full-time. This is good news as part-time employment has been doing the heavy lifting for years now.
Jobs growth in H2 2015 was concentrated in Health Care and Retail, with the services sector the overwhelming employer. Mining employment is steady (job losses were in 2014) but expect further downside this year as projects are completed, but for some perspective, job losses in that sector are in the thousands, compared with the millions of services jobs out there. This rotation is a contributing factor as to why wages growth is so low, as traditionally the good-producing industries such as mining, manufacturing and to a lesser extent construction, are the high paying high growth jobs.”