20 Jan 2016
UK labour market report in prospective today - Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, suggests that problems in the steel industry are likely to put upward pressure on jobless claims again in December, so we forecast a 3k rise, with the claimant count rate holding at 2.3%.
Key Quotes
“The broader LFS unemployment measure had been falling briskly again in H2 2015 and we expect it to round down to 5.1% in November on employment growth of 235k. Upward pressure from a relatively low unemployment cohort being replaced in the survey (4.6% when it was last surveyed in August) leaves the rate close to the rounding point though. However, if it does not quite make the fall in this release, it probably will in the next release.
Despite this trend decline in unemployment, we expect another fall in the headline rate of average weekly earnings growth. The headline rate is a three-month moving average, so the soft September is still being passed into the headline. Excluding bonuses, we expect a 0.2pp decline to 1.8% and including bonuses, we expect a 0.4pp decline to 2.0%. The former at least should then be in a position to start recovering in the next release.”
Key Quotes
“The broader LFS unemployment measure had been falling briskly again in H2 2015 and we expect it to round down to 5.1% in November on employment growth of 235k. Upward pressure from a relatively low unemployment cohort being replaced in the survey (4.6% when it was last surveyed in August) leaves the rate close to the rounding point though. However, if it does not quite make the fall in this release, it probably will in the next release.
Despite this trend decline in unemployment, we expect another fall in the headline rate of average weekly earnings growth. The headline rate is a three-month moving average, so the soft September is still being passed into the headline. Excluding bonuses, we expect a 0.2pp decline to 1.8% and including bonuses, we expect a 0.4pp decline to 2.0%. The former at least should then be in a position to start recovering in the next release.”