22 Jan 2016
NZD/USD to take cues from NZ monetary policy events – Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the next two weeks contain two important NZ monetary policy events, the first of which is the RBNZ’s OCR Review (28 Jan), followed by the annual “quasi-MPS” speech by Governor Wheeler on 3 Feb.
Key Quotes
“The OCR Review is presented as a one page of text (no press conference), so the speech is used to fully explain the message. We expect that message to represent a dovish shift from December’s weak and conditional easing bias, paving the way for a cut in either March or June.
Bias: NZD/USD has probed under the 0.6400 level, with a daily close below likely to take it as far as 0.6235 during the weeks ahead. Admittedly it’s becoming oversold, but we would view any bounces as corrective and opportunities to establish shorts. January’s risk averse mood may or may not fade, but the absence of NZ infl ation is an enduring theme which will keep the pressure on the RBNZ to consider easing. Add to that the weak outlook for NZ commodity prices (dairy supply high, demand low) and our bearish outlook for NZD/USD remains intact."
Key Quotes
“The OCR Review is presented as a one page of text (no press conference), so the speech is used to fully explain the message. We expect that message to represent a dovish shift from December’s weak and conditional easing bias, paving the way for a cut in either March or June.
Bias: NZD/USD has probed under the 0.6400 level, with a daily close below likely to take it as far as 0.6235 during the weeks ahead. Admittedly it’s becoming oversold, but we would view any bounces as corrective and opportunities to establish shorts. January’s risk averse mood may or may not fade, but the absence of NZ infl ation is an enduring theme which will keep the pressure on the RBNZ to consider easing. Add to that the weak outlook for NZ commodity prices (dairy supply high, demand low) and our bearish outlook for NZD/USD remains intact."