AUD/USD: outlook remains bearish below 200 dma

AUD/USD is currently back below the 1hr ma's and was denied by the bears through the 100 sma at 0.7209.

AUD/USD was making a strong recovery at the start of the week, but RBA's Stevens has left the door open for further rates cuts later in the year when he announced that the current picture is of slowing growth and lower unemployment and that inflation is probably a bit too low. In respect of the Aussie, he said it is doing “...what it's supposed to do.” This has been interpreted by the market as both dovish and bearish.

Meanwhile, oil is unstable in the $49.00's bbls, but the Vix is down over 3% and stocks are performing well - risk on. However, risk is subject to a correction as we approach the EU referendum and Fed interest rate decision next month, where risk off markets could be a stumbling block in the bull's recovery process off May lows at 0.7145.

AUD/USD levels

Analysts at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD's outlook is negative. "The market recently retested and stayed below the 200 day ma at 0.7253, which leaves it under pressure," and added, "The daily RSI is low, but currently not diverging so further losses remain plausible towards the 78.6% retracement at 0.7044."