US Elections: Fireworks all around - Rabobank

Michael Every, Head of Financial Markets Research at Rabobank, notes that in yesterday’s US presidential debate both candidates were initially polite and respectful – but that didn’t last long.

Key Quotes

“Within minutes both were doing their best to be more populist than the other, albeit in different ways. Trump was immediately on to his key theme of trade and tariffs, and Clinton on taxing the wealthy -- who have oddly been her largest campaign donors – as well as inclusive growth and helping the middle class.

Other key highlights so far include Clinton saying Trump “lives in his own reality”; Trump saying “We are in a big fat bubble...The Fed is doing political things...When they raise interest rates you will see bad things happen”; Clinton claiming Trump pays no federal income tax and is “hiding something”; and Trump saying he will release his tax return against his lawyers’ advice when Clinton releases all of her deleted emails. Then we spent nearly 10 minutes talking solely about the details of Trump’s realestate business. In short, the early joke about the Springtime for Hitler audience reaction appears sadly accurate so far – and we still have an hour to go at time of writing.

However, watching USD/MXN as a proxy for how well the market thinks Trump is doing we have so far seen little change. Presumably we have to wait for the final poll on how the national audience saw both candidates doing before we get that reaction.”