AUD/USD 'kiss and goodbye' to 0.77; US 10-year yield boosted long-dollar

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7642, down -0.43% or (32)-pips on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7680 and low at 0.7630.

The Australian dollar vs. American dollar was muted near 0.7680 as traders made portfolio adjustsments due to the latest RBA's comments on the currency value; is it too high?. The central bank failed to disclose a firm view, therefore, the 0.7700 level has been avoided in two different trading sessions as the pair got as close as 0.7695.

On today's European session, risk takers moved the odds to favor long-Aussie, sadly a short-lived effort as the market mood seems to support dollar strenght across the board. Furthermore, the US Govt.10 year yield traded positive at +1.18%, even more evidence to keep those long-dollar positions.

Later this week, the AU economic docket faces two critical data release as the Employment change and Unemployment rate are expected to make a dramatic impact in the exchange rate. Evidently, if both deliver 'better than expected results' clocking figures above 10k abd 5.8% then, traders may experience a bullish impetus that can take the pair +89 pips to the upside.

Historical data available for traders and investors indicates during the last 7-weeks that AUD/USD pair, a commodity-linked currency, had the best trading day at +1.18% (Jan.17) or 89-pips, and the worst at -0.81% (Jan.18) or (61)-pips.

Technical levels to consider

In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are aligned at 0.7695 (high Feb.2), then at 0.7777 (high Nov.8) and above that at 0.7834 (high April.21). While supports are aligned at 0.7576 (low Feb.2), later at 0.7507 (100-DMA) and below that at 0.7425 (50-DMA). On the other hand, Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) finally, seems to shift and head south. Therefore, there is evidence to expect further Aussie losses in the near term at least towards 0.7514 and later 0.7512.

On the long term view, if 0.7834 (high April, 2016) is in fact, a relevant top, then the upside is limited at 0.7809 (short-term 38.2% Fib). Furthermore, RBA's confusing and 'do not know' comments on the Australian dollar value made the AUD/USD bullish impetus vulnerable to any US dollar narrative that can easily drag the pair lower towards 0.7250. To the downside, supports are aligned at 0.7433 (short-term 23.6% Fib), later at  0.7182 (reverse long-term 61.8% Fib) and below that back to 0.6826 (low Jan.2016).

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