USD/CHF refreshes daily highs above 1.0100

Following a retracement towards 1.0070 area, the USD/CHF picked up its momentum during the NA session and refreshed its daily high at 1.0130. At the moment the pair is up 0.5% at 1.0126,

FOMC expectations

Early in the session, DXY remained indifferent to data after US Factory Orders have matched estimates for the month of January, expanding at a monthly 1.2% vs. December’s 1.3% gain.However, investors seem to be taking advantage of the downswing actions to add to their long USD positions amid strengthened expectations towards a March rate hike. According to CME Group FedWatch tool, the markets are pricing a 86% probability of a 25 bp hike on March 15.

Safe haven CHF

In his latest interview with Schweiz am Wochenende newspaper, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said that remains “significantly overvalued” and pledged to maintain the central bank’s expansive monetary policy of negative interest rates and intervention threats. Furthermore, citing elections in Germany and France, he warned that “such periods of increased political uncertainty are always delicate for us because Switzerland is increasingly viewed as a safe haven.”. His remarks put CHF under pressure as SNB is likely to intervene to prevent further appreciation in the near future.

Technical outlook

The first resistance for the USD/CHF is at 1.0150 (Fib. 78.6% - Jan. – Feb. Fall) ahead of 1.0195/1.02 (Jan. 9 high/psychological level) and 1.0235 (Fib. %61.8). On the downside, the first support is aligned at 1.01 (psychological level) followed by 1.0050 (20-DMA) and finally 1.000 (psychological level/Feb. 28 low).