US: Need a strong print in the retail sales control group for April – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank point out that if US GDP growth is to pick up in Q2, we need a strong print in the retail sales control group for April.

Key Quotes

“US retail sales figures for April is due for release. Since October 2016, consumer confidence has been very high, indicating tailwinds for private consumption. However, we believe that consumer confidence has run ahead of actual developments and will come down rather than retail sales accelerating. The weak GDP growth in Q1 was driven largely by weak private consumption. Hence, if GDP growth is to pick up in Q2, we need a strong print in the retail sales control group for April. The University of Michigan consumer confidence is also due to be released today and in line with the argument above, we estimate a decline.”