Fitch: Oil prices likely to remain below USD60 for the long-term

"Lower global production costs, considerable U.S. shale growth potential and shale's ability to quickly respond to changing market conditions should keep average annual oil prices below USD60 a barrel in the long term," Fitch Ratings said in a report on Monday.

Key quotes:

  • But oil prices will remain volatile and could periodically exceed our assumptions.
  • The land rig count in the U.S. lower 48 has risen around 45% since the end of 2016, contributing to a rebound in U.S. crude production to over 9.5 million barrels a day (mmbbl/d) from a trough of about 8.4 mmbbl/d in July 2016.
  • We remain skeptical about the effectiveness of OPEC's production cuts to rebalance supply.
  • Global inventories of both crude oil and refined products remain well above historical averages. 

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