UK unemployment rate to nudge down to 4.2% - Lloyds Bank

Analysts at Lloyds Bank note that despite surveys of hiring intentions remaining firm, the level of UK employment fell in Q3 by 14k.

Key Quotes

“Still, courtesy of an overall decline in the size of the labour force, the unemployment rate also moved lower, declining by one-tenths from 4.4% in Q2 to 4.3%. Some recovery in job creation looks likely in the latest report and we forecast a rise of 25k in the three months to October. That should deliver a further nudge lower in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. More importantly, annual headline wage growth looks set to jump to 2.6% from 2.2% largely due to base effects.”