NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows a slightly softer growth outlook

The latest New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Consensus Forecasts expects a slight downward revision to the growth outlook for the next few years.

Key points

Recent activity indicators point to softer growth in the near term.

Export growth forecasts have been revised lower in the near term, but higher later in the projection.

Household spending forecasts have again been revised up, although expectations are still for a moderation in growth through to 2021

Beyond 2018, annual growth is expected to peak at 3.2 percent for the year to March 2020, before moderating to 2.9 percent by 2021.

Forecasters continue to expect annual inflation to track close to 2 percent over the next few years.