When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

The UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales are expected to drop sharply by 0.4% m/m in June, while on an annualized basis, retail sales are seen unchanged at 3.9%. In May, retail sales arrived at -1.3% over the month and 3.9% annually.

Meanwhile, core retail sales data, excluding fuel, are expected to come in at 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y. The report will be published later this session at 0830 GMT.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

FXStreet’s Analyst, Haresh Menghani, noted, “From a technical perspective, the pair has been grinding lower alongside a downward sloping trend-channel and yesterday's break below the 1.3040-30 region (Oct./Nov. 2017 lows) now seems to have opened room for an extension of the bearish trajectory. Hence, the pair seems more likely to continue with its downside, even below the 1.30 handle, towards testing the trend-channel support, currently near mid-1.2900s. The fall could further get extended towards the 1.2900 round figure mark, representing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.1987-1.4377 upsurge.” 

“On the flip side, a meaningful momentum back above the 1.3100 handle is likely to confront strong resistance near the 1.3170-75 region (50% Fibonacci retracement level) and any subsequent up-move might now be capped at the 1.3200 round figure mark,” Haresh adds.

Key Notes

UK: Focus on retail sales - Nomura

GBP/USD Review: Sterling on the downside, bears aiming for 1.30 ahead of UK Retail Sales

UK: Retail sales pace to moderate in June with a 0.4% print - TDS

About the UK retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.