Japan: Recovery in export growth in Apr-Jun - Nomura

According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance trade statistics, nominal exports in June 2018 were up 6.7% y-y, below the consensus (Bloomberg survey median) forecast for a rise of 7.0%, and nominal imports were up 2.5%, below the consensus forecast for a rise of 5.3%, notes the research team at Nomura.

Key Quotes

“The trade surplus came to ¥721.4bn, above the market consensus forecast of ¥531.2bn, mainly due to the weakness of imports.”

“Using the BOJ’s export price index, we calculate that real exports in June 2018 were down 0.4% m-m. While this marks a second straight month of decline, real exports rose 5.4% m-m in April and rose 1.0% q-q for the Apr-Jun quarter overall, meaning that real export growth has recovered somewhat from the 0.3% q-q growth recorded in Jan-Mar.”