Singapore: 2019 GDP growth downgraded, MAS easing coming – ANZ

Khoon Goh, analyst at ANZ, suggests that they are downgrading their Singapore GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 0.4% which would be the weakest calendar year growth since 2009.

Key Quotes

“In view of the growing downside risks to the external outlook, we still expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ease policy at their October meeting. The MAS has ruled out an off-cycle easing.”

“At this stage, we expect a 50bp reduction in the slope of the S$NEER policy band to 0.5% pa, but a larger easing straight to a neutral policy stance cannot be ruled out.”

“The SGD has already weakened past our year-end target of 1.3850 against the USD. Further depreciation towards 1.4000, a level last seen in May 2017, looks likely.”