Currencies: US dollar strength will begin to wilt as the COVID-19 impacts in the US growth – Westpac

The US dollar strength could be justified against Europe, the UK, and Asia by the US having limited exposure to COVID–19. This is no longer the case, with almost 30% of global COVID–19 cases now found in the US. Yet the US dollar still remains well bid, per Westpac Institutional Bank.

Key quotes

“We look for Sterling to find a low against the US dollar in the June quarter at 1.22 and to then slowly rise to 1.27 end–2021.”

“Euro will likely take longer to trough given the risks before the region and the limited economic momentum it carried into this crisis. But still, from 1.06 in the second half of 2020, a steady climb to 1.10 will occur by end–2021.”

“The Japanese yen is expected to be a countervailing force to the above, with USD/JPY expected to fall from 108 currently to 105 at September. From October, the pair should begin to trade back towards 110 at end–2021.”