When is the Australian Retail Sales and how could they affect AUD/USD?

Retail Sales overview

Early Wednesday, the market sees the preliminary reading for the September month Retail Sales data from Australia at 00:30 GMT. Following a 4% contraction in August, markets are expecting a mild recovery in the print as the period comprises of Australia’s bounce back from the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence. Although bearish signals from the RBA have already waned optimism for any expectedly positive data, AUD/USD traders may look for a bounce from the multi-day low amid cautious optimism, which in turn makes today’s readings the key.

Analysts at Westpac don’t turn down the market forecasts while saying:

We expect sales to be up slightly, +0.5% after -4% in Aug. The states will continue to experience divergent conditions, Victoria set to be weak again.

How could it affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD pierces 0.7050 while consolidating the previous day’s losses to the lowest in one month. Although the recent optimism concerning the US COVID-19 relief package seems to have favored the pair buyers, bulls are likely to keep in mind that the latest statements in the RBA minutes and by RBA Governor Philip Lowe have been pointing towards a rate cut. However, any extreme prints of the key economic data might not refrain from extending the latest recovery moves.

Technically, the bears need to offer a clear break below an ascending trend line from mid-June, currently around 0.7045, to visit the previous month’s bottom surrounding the 0.7000 threshold. Until then, the 100-day SMA level of 0.7101 holds the key for the bulls’ entries.

Key Notes

AUD/USD Forecast: Bouncing from fresh 1-month lows, but still at risk of falling

AUD/USD: Fades pullback from one month low ahead of Aussie Retail Sales

About Australian Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.