US NFP to rise by 1,300K in April – Goldman Sachs

Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict a strong US NFP report for April, with their expectations highlighted below.

Key quotes

“Estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 1,300k in April (m/m sa).”

“Estimate a five-tenths decline in the unemployment rate to 5.5%, reflecting rapid job gains partially offset by an expected rise in the participation rate.”

“Estimate a flat monthly reading for average hourly earnings ... due to negative composition and calendar effects; coupled with the anniversary of the spring 2020 lockdowns, we estimate the year-on-year rate will plummet from +4.2% to -0.4%.”