Fed: Risks to near-term pace, terminal rate forecast are tilted to the upside – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist Jan Hatzius is brushing away the market’s concerns, preferring to focus on Powell’s less hawkish commentary.

Key quotes

“We continue to expect the FOMC to slow the pace from here, delivering a 50bp hike in September and 25bp hikes in November and December, for a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5%.”

“However, additional CPI and employment reports will be available by the September meeting, and Powell stressed that the decision will ‘depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook.”

“We see the risks to both the near-term pace and our terminal rate forecast as tilted to the upside.”